BJP and NDA will gain handsomely across several states in the north, west, east and south of India, while the Congress and UPA will face major losses in these states, according to anopinion poll done for a TV channel.
NDTV released the findings of its poll, conducted by Hansa Research, from 12 states accounting for a total of 319 seats on Thursday. It predicted that the NDA would win 166 seats, gaining 61 seats in these states in the 2014 polls. In contrast, the UPA will see its tally halved from 104 to 52.
While most of the findings are in line with predictions by other polls, what could come as a rude shock for the Congress is the estimate that even in Karnataka, where the party was hoping to make some gains vis-a-vis 2009, it is the BJP that will gain a seat.
The states for which the findings were released on Thursday were Maharashtra, West Bengal, Bihar, Tamil Nadu, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Haryana and Delhi.
The BJP and NDA, according to the polls, would make the biggest gains in Rajasthan, where the party would win 19 seats and Congress a mere five, in a near-complete reversal of the 2009 position. In Maharashtra too, the Sena-BJP alliance is set to win 33 of the state’s 48 seats, gaining 13, while the Congress-NCP combine UPA would win just 12, a loss of 13. In Bihar, the BJP-LJP alliance would pick up 23 of the state’s 40 seats and the RJD-Congress combine 11, leaving the ruling JD(U) picking up the crumbs, according to the poll.
The BJP or NDA would make relatively more modest gains in Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Haryana, Delhi and Bihar, while the UPA would make some small gains in Bihar, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand, the poll predicted.
In West Bengal and Tamil Nadu, the battle predictably is likely to remain between parties that are part of neither of the two big coalitions. In West Bengal, the poll suggested that the Trinamool Congress would win 32 seats, a gain of 13 from 2009, and the Left 9 (a loss of six), leaving just one seat for the Congress, which had won 6 last time.
In Tamil Nadu, AIADMK was predicted to win 27 seats, up 18 from 2009, and the DMK 10, down eight, leaving just two seats for “others” to win. In Delhi, the poll predicted that AAP would win four seats, BJP two and Congress one.